Beyond Borderland Conference: Keynote Address Summary

The keynote lecture for the 2022 Temerty Contemporary Ukraine Program conference was delivered on Wednesday, February 9, 2022, by Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch with an introduction by Dr. Benjamin L. Schmitt. Amb. Yovanovitch served as U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine from 2016-2019, and she previously served as Ambassador to the Republic of Armenia (2008-2011) and the Kyrgyz Republic (2005-2008). Drawing from this experience, Amb. Yovanovitch discussed the importance of sovereignty and democracy in Ukraine and beyond.

Marie Yovanovitch event poster

Amb. Yovanovitch began by defining sovereignty: it is the authority of a state to govern itself, and we typically understand this as a state controlling its territory and ruling citizens. It includes a country’s right to determine its own foreign policy and people’s ability to live in freedom. In a democratic country like Ukraine—however imperfect their democracy may be—sovereignty derives authority from the people through elections. And Ukrainians have made their voices heard about what they want to see in Ukraine, including during the 2004 Orange Revolution to support Viktor Yushchenko and the 2013-2014 Euromaidan to protest Viktor Yanukovych’s turn away from the European Union. In 2019, voters chose Volodymyr Zelensky by a margin unseen in independent Ukraine. 
 
Supporting developing democracies, such as Ukraine, is the right thing to, Amb. Yovanovitch said, adding that a liberal democratic ecosystem based on market democracies creates a more level playing field for political endeavors. Countries organized around the principles of liberal democracy and market economy are more just, more prosperous, and more secure. Therefore, it is in the United States’ national security interest to support democracies, especially in the face of an authoritarian adversary such as Russia. This also fits within the UN Charter and the Helsinki Final Act, which lays out the principles of national sovereignty and the inviolability of national borders and territorial integrity. And, Amb. Yovanovitch pointed out, Russia and Russian people have also benefited from these structures—they have also experienced economic growth and an increase in personal wealth. The Kremlin’s violation of the international order when it annexed Crimea in 2014, and its current threats now, put European security and the international order in jeopardy. 
 
Amb. Yovanovitch pointed to the devastating human toll that a Russian invasion in Ukraine would take. There would be potentially tens of thousands of military deaths and millions of refugees moving into western Europe from Ukraine. She stated that she is concerned that President Putin does not understand the extent to which Ukrainians will protect their independence. And this makes sense in the Russian worldview: Putin doesn’t try to understand Ukraine and Ukrainians, because that would conflict with his origin story about Russian and Ukrainian unity and the grievances Russia has nurtured about Ukraine, as well as about the U.S. and NATO. These grievances set the precedent for war, despite the unevenness of the situation, wherein only 6 percent of the Russian border touches a NATO country and Ukraine’s northern, eastern, and southern borders are all surrounded by Russia.
 
The good news, said Amb. Yovanovitch, is that the U.S., NATO, and Western countries have enhanced their diplomatic efforts. Our policies are increasingly robust. When Russia came out with a list of demands in December, the diplomatic response was to get to the negotiating table. We should be willing to discuss these concerns, as long as it is on a reciprocal basis and not down the barrel of a gun—fundamentally, Ukraine should get to choose its own course. But, she recognized, it is difficult for the U.S. and others outside of Russia to understand Putin and the Kremlin. According to our logic, it’s crazy for Russia to further invade Ukraine; it’s a no-win scenario. Diplomatic negotiations are the rational solution. But it isn’t clear what Putin wants—does he even know himself, she asked? What is the state of equilibrium at the end of all this? What does it take for Russia to be a status quo power? While we can’t know the answers to these questions, the U.S. and our allies have to remain true to our principles: peace, prosperity, and the international order. We cannot just try our best to satisfy Russia because it seems like an easier choice. 
 
Above all, this is about the existence of a sovereign Ukraine. And as Ukraine’s democracy grows stronger, as it moves closer to the West, Russia wants to bring Ukraine to heel. And if Ukraine succeeds in its push toward democracy, especially in spite of Russian meddling, then the Russian people might wonder about their own system of “managed democracy.” But Russia has largely lost Ukraine, especially after their first invasion of 2014. Invading a country doesn’t make your country more popular, said Amb. Yovanovitch. But Putin has no tools to access Ukrainians other than coercion. 
 
So, she asked, what do we do? What kind of world do we want to live in? Do we want to live in a world where an “alliance of autocrats” dominates? Who wants to live in a world run according to Putin or Xi Jinping? And if that isn’t what we want, we need to uphold our values, the kind of world we want to live in, where human rights matter and self-determination and rule of law aren’t just words. This doesn’t mean that the international order stays the same forever, but any changes should be informed more by democracy than autocracy. If we turn away from Ukraine and its democracy, then we aren’t acting in our own interests. Putin will continue to demand more, and other authoritarian leaders will be emboldened to do likewise.
 
Fundamentally, said Amb. Yovanovitch, the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian people are the most important actors in defending their sovereignty. However, countries have partners, and the United States is Ukraine’s strongest partner. We can’t control the Kremlin, but we can influence Moscow’s decision making by increasing the cost of choosing the path of aggression in Ukraine. One mechanism we have used in this case is a public campaign that shines light on Moscow’s intentions and the potentially catastrophic loss of life if there is a further invasion. This has made it clear what kind of adversary Putin is and makes it more difficult to pull off.
 
Amb. Yovanovitch further advocated for supporting Ukraine with loan guarantees and economic assistance, in addition to providing military supplies to Ukraine so that Ukrainians can defend themselves. She noted the importance of working with international relief organizations to provide humanitarian assistance if Russia attacks Ukraine again. She argued for a robust package of sanctions so that the Kremlin and the public know what is coming.
 
The most important question, Amb. Yovanovitch said, is what Ukraine wants. Maintaining sovereignty is an existential struggle for Ukraine. The Ukrainian people aren’t giving in—they have made their choice. Ukrainians have agency, and they will defend their sovereignty. Now, she recommended, Ukraine needs to do four things: First, President Zelensky and his political adversaries in Ukraine should put aside their differences to unite against a common threat. Second, they should work closely with the United States and other partners to maintain a united front. Third, they should build up their military, and fourth, they should reinforce laws and norms that create transparency, using the rule of law to create resilience to fight the threat. 
 
Ukraine is a symbol of the fight of democracy against autocracy. It’s a symbol of whether or not democracy can survive. Russia is threatening not just Ukraine but democracy and the global order. Ukraine is a testing ground, not just of Ukraine itself but of the resolve of the U.S. and its allies. If we want to live in a world where we’re secure, where freedoms are protected, we need to stand with Ukraine and ensure Russia takes the path of diplomacy. 
 
Amb. Yovanovitch addressed audience questions for over 30 minutes, discussing wide-ranging topics such as the importance of domestic reforms in Ukraine, the impact of Russia’s moves on the post-Soviet space, Ukrainian efforts to root out corruption, and the potential of dissenting voices within Russia to influence President Putin. 
 
Ambassador Yovanovitch’s memoir, Lessons from the Edge, will be released on March 15. A public video of this talk, including the Q&A, will also be available on March 15. 
 
Please join us tomorrow for panel 3 of the TCUP Conference, “Displacement and Reintegration,” at noon!