On January 13, 2023, Marie Yovanovitch, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, joined Dr. Emily Channell-Justice, Director of the Temerty Contemporary Ukraine Program, for a “fireside chat” on Ukraine at Harvard University. Ambassador Yovanovitch retired in 2019 after a long, decorated career in public service. She served as the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine from 2016 to 2019, the Republic of Armenia from 2008 to 2011, and the Kyrgyz Republic from 2005 to 2008. In 2022, she gave the keynote address for the TCUP Conference, “Beyond Borderland: 30 Years of Ukrainian Sovereignty,” which took place in February shortly before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Currently, she is a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a non-Resident Fellow at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Georgetown University.
During the Fireside Chat on January 13, Amb. Yovanovitch discussed the current situation in Ukraine, her tenure as ambassador, and her new memoir, Lessons from the Edge.
At the start of the discussion, Amb. Yovanovitch examined the events leading up to the invasion, highlighting Russia's past actions and the international community's response to them, and discussed the factors that led to the escalation of the conflict in 2022. Observers have questioned whether Ukraine's allies could have done more to prevent the crisis. Yovanovitch remarked that, indeed, more could have been done in the past to prevent the 2022 invasion, noting, “I think we should have been stronger in our response in the past [but] that doesn’t take away anything from the strong response that the U.S. and allies and partners are exhibiting right now.”
Yovanovitch also reflected on Russian history, specifically Putin’s tenure. Putin came to power against the backdrop of a “brutal campaign in Chechnya,” an internal conflict within Russia that killed thousands of people living there.
The ambassador recalled that because it was widely considered an internal issue, there wasn’t a strong response from the international community, and “Putin got away with that [brutal war].” Then in 2008, Russia “grabbed two hunks of Georgia and there was some mild criticism.” Yovanovitch mentioned that there were no sanctions and there was also a change of government in the United States shortly after, so “we wanted to have a reset, and we pursued that policy, and a lot of good things were done but basically Russia kind of got away with the Georgia invasion, too.”
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Then in 2014, although some sanctions followed the initial Russian invasion in eastern Ukraine, Yovanovitch remarked, the primary sanctions really started when MH17 flight was shot down. Sanctions kicked in because “so many European and so many Dutch people died on that flight.” A lot of sanctions were put into place at that point, but Yovanovitch believes they were not painful enough. Russia absorbed those initial sanctions and felt undeterred. The Russians regrouped during the next few years, keeping their conflict in Donbas at a lower intensity. Yovanovitch noted that upon her arrival in Ukraine to serve as ambassador in 2016, she was informed that several Ukrainians were dying every week. This low-intensity conflict persisted until February 2022, when it escalated with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
However, the ambassador also believes that Putin made three serious miscalculations regarding his invasion of Ukraine. According to Putin’s belief, “Ukrainians are not a distinct people with a distinct culture and language.” He thought the people of Ukraine wouldn’t fight back but rather would welcome the invading army. His evaluation of the Russian military's capabilities were incorrect and deeply flawed, as he believed the army would easily conquer Ukraine. Some officers even came prepared with dress uniforms for the victory parade they expected to have within a week of invading Ukraine. Putin's final miscalculation was regarding the determination of the West, as he underestimated President Biden's leadership and believed the Western alliance was not prepared to intervene. Putin believed it was his time to assert dominance, but he was wrong in all his assumptions, the ambassador argued.
Turning to Yovanovitch’s new memoir, Lessons from the Edge, Channell-Justice asked the ambassador about balancing the different aims and interests of global powers and other stakeholders along with domestic priorities. She recalled that during Yovanovitch’s tenure as ambassador, Ukraine’s sovereignty was under threat, but the country was also working to promote reforms. Ukraine had to battle a two-front war, Yovanovitch said, “the war for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but also the war for what kind of country Ukraine was going to become.” She emphasized that Ukrainians prioritize living under the rule of law and have no desire to return to the past.
Channell-Justice asked about Ukraine's preparation for a full-scale invasion leading up to the war and the role of the U.S. The ambassador stated that, in 2021, she didn't expect Russia to invade and initially thought the military buildup was for show, but the declassification of intelligence to Ukrainians and the world revealed the true severity of the situation. President Zelensky was also balancing concerns about the Ukrainian economy and making an effort to prevent a collapse. The ambassador noted that while it's uncertain how well prepared Ukraine was on February 24th, it's clear that they were able to defend themselves.
Ukrainians are fighting for their right to exist, Yovanovitch said, and it's important for the country to make decisions that benefit its people, with the primary responsibility on Ukrainians to be agents of change. The conversation also touched on Ukraine's progress toward EU membership and the need for reforms, including addressing corruption and fixing the court system. Yovanovitch emphasized the importance of a strong court system for fair dispute resolution and acknowledged that, while progress has been made, many Ukrainians are impatient for more. Despite challenges, Ukraine must continue with these necessary reforms. The Ukrainian people want a future ruled by the rule of law and reflecting their European heritage.
As the conversation came to an end, Yovanovitch noted that U.S. support for Ukraine has been a bipartisan effort and Ukraine has been a responsible partner. She emphasized the importance of accountability for aid and weapons going to Ukraine and the need for continued support to help Ukraine, a young and struggling democracy that was brutally invaded by a totalitarian state. Supporting Ukraine against Russia's attempts to expand its empire is in the national interest of the U.S., she said, as Russia poses a threat to the international order that has kept the world safe and prosperous since World War II. She concluded by noting that supporting Ukraine helps to undermine an adversary that poses a threat to the U.S., NATO, and the West without putting U.S. boots on the ground. Supporting Ukraine, she said, is the deal of the century.
Summary written by David Kirichenko.